Welcome to the NTRANS partner lunch webinar series!
Bring your lunch and join other partners in the centre for some energizing food for thought. There will be time for questions and discussion after the talk.
Emil Dimanchev (PhD Candidate, NTNU) will give us this presentation:
Title: Electric Vehicle Adoption Dynamics on the Road to Deep Decarbonization
The chapter provides a systematic review of decarbonization pathways for passenger vehicles. Published pathways indicate that the passenger vehicle fleet must be primarily comprised of zero-emission vehicles by 2050, in a future consistent with keeping global warming below 2 or 1.5 °C. The fleet share of zero-emission vehicles ranges between 22% and 90% (median of 62%) in 2 °C scenarios and between 67% and 100% (median of 96%) in 1.5 °C scenarios. Most scenarios envision battery electric vehicles accounting for all or nearly all zero-emission vehicles in 2050. Battery electric vehicles represent 22–90% (median of 56%) and 67–100% (median of 87%) of the fleet in 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively. A simple quantitative stock-and-flow fleet turnover model developed for this chapter shows how the slow turnover of the vehicle fleet poses a significant challenge to such goals. An indicative quantitative analysis using this model shows that reaching a zero-emission vehicle fleet consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming “well below” 2 °C requires increasing the adoption of battery electric vehicles beyond current trajectories. Achieving 1.5 °C-consistent zero-emission vehicle fleet shares requires both rapidly phasing out emitting vehicle sales and significantly accelerating fleet turnover. The scale of the challenge calls for greater consideration of additional transport mitigation measures.
Emil is a PhD Candidate at NTNU (Electric Power Engineering), Research Affiliate at MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, and a Superforecaster at Good Judgment. He has testified before legislators and advised government officials on climate policy in the U.S. and the European Union. He was previously a Senior Carbon Market Analyst at Thomson Reuters, during which time his work on the reform of the EU ETS was featured in EU Parliament and EU Commission hearings, “contributing to a cool-headed debate” in the words of one policy maker. You can follow Emil’s latest work on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilDimanchev.
Tomas Moe Skjølsvold, VIce Director NTRANS